Soil Degradation in a Changing Climate

Soils take thousands of years to form, but can be destroyed in hours—better monitoring would help countries develop actionable plans to save soils. For this reason, the UN University (UNU) has developed a Soil Vulnerability Index (SVI), which was presented at this event.

Nima Shokri, Institute of Geo-Hydroinformatics, Hamburg University of Technology, session moderator, presented on the topic of monitoring soil degradation patterns under varying climate and management practices. Noting that soil degradation currently incurs losses of more than USD 10 trillion a year, he explained how AI and remote sensing technologies can be used to better understand the nature and degree of soil degradation.

Shokri explained that the assessment of soil degradation until now has applied qualitative explanations that rely on subjective thresholds; however, now the UNU has developed an SVI for quantifying soil health, based on physical indicators of soil erosion, electrical conductivity, pH levels, and soil organic carbon. Through use of the SVI, Shokri showed how AI-driven projections of soil vulnerability can be developed to better understand trends in soil health around the world. Looking ahead, he highlighted the need for access to more reliable climate data, and the development of actionable plans to protect soil, especially in areas facing serious threats to soil health.

Matteo Zampieri, Climate Change Center (CCC), King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Saudi Arabia, described the work of the CCC, which is developing climate services for the Arabian Peninsula and supporting the Saudi Green Initiative. He noted that, since 1980, the global extent of area at risk of compound heat and drought events has tripled; however, traditional weather forecasts cannot say what conditions will prevail beyond more than three or four weeks. He elaborated that conventional thinking links climate conditions to impacts on the ground, but this fails to consider how vegetation cover and soil conditions influence those impacts. Taking the latter into account, he explained, shows the potential for climate mitigation and adaptation through vegetation cover and irrigation, which can reduce high temperatures and moderate the impacts of extreme weather events.

Johannes Cullmann, UNU Institute for Integrated Management of Material Fluxes and of Resources (UNU-FLORES), asked how we can ensure enough healthy and resilient soils on the planet to both provide food and sequester carbon, given that some studies now warn that soil could become a net carbon emitter in the next two or three decades. One important action, he said, is to combine knowledge of soil vulnerability with knowledge of where we are losing water from the land and then use this to make better decisions about where to produce which food. He cited the example of the baru nut in Brazil, which has been commercialized in recent years from a tree that was traditionally only used as a building material. He noted that wetlands, too, could be a potential food source, mentioning algae in particular, and could simultaneously sequester carbon.

Leonie Meier, WWF, discussed soil degradation impacts on grasslands and savannahs, which cover more than 50% of the terrestrial surface of the planet, support 25% of its population, and sequester about 33% of global carbon emissions. She said that agriculture is a major driver of vegetation and biodiversity loss, and extreme drought impacts are further exacerbating land degradation. She welcomed the International Year of Rangelands and Pastoralists in 2026 as an important milestone in the quest to bring the topic of rangelands to the fore.

In the question-and-answer session, a participant from Egypt asked about “smart” food, and whether it is naturally the outcome of “smart” agriculture or something else. Cullen responded that smart food is food that is produced based on the optimization of factors such as climate, soil, and geophysical location, rather than as a direct result of government subsidies. He suggested that, for example, alligator meat might be a smart food in Viet Nam, even if it lacks consumer appeal in Germany, because it is making use of an existing resource and is therefore “smarter” than selling imported tofu made from crops grown on a drained wetland in Brazil.

Responding to a question on the accuracy of soil vulnerability modelling, Shokri said accuracy depends on data availability, which is good in Europe and North America, but lacking in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Zampieri pointed out that one of the aims of CCC projects is to address this gap by developing data for Saudi Arabia and the Arabian peninsula.

In concluding remarks, Shokri asked panelists what they considered to be priority actions. Cullmann noted that “culture” is key—in other words, if people connect with each other to understand the issues, then they can decide on the right actions. Zampieri agreed that, for large-scale projects, investing in culture is important, especially in the development of sustainable agricultural practices, such as replanting lands with more suitable crops to mitigate soil degradation. Meier responded that priorities should be defined by the users who actually work on the land and know what to invest in.

Organizer: UNU-FLORES
Contact: flores@unu.edu
Website: https://unu.edu/flores